Fourth Roundtable

Dear all,

Thank you for joining our fourth Green Fertiliser Development Network (GFDN) roundtable on 28 April 2026. The conflict in the Middle East has made the fragility of global food and energy security difficult to ignore, and Asia Pacific is no exception. We turned our attention to Indonesia, a country producing 15 million tons of fertiliser a year to feed 270 million people, entirely from grey ammonia and imported fossil gas.

The opportunity is real. Green ammonia could secure Indonesia's domestic fertiliser supply, provide a low-carbon fuel for the world's largest archipelago's shipping sector, and form the basis of a major export industry. Indonesia has an estimated 3,600 GW of untapped renewable potential to build it on. And yet progress has been slow, while first movers in India, China, and MENA are moving ahead. This session asked what Indonesia needs to do now to catch up.

Why the green premium is smaller than it looks
 

Leandro Janke of Agora Industry opened the session with some striking facts. Green hydrogen today costs 1.5 to 6 times more than fossil hydrogen. But that gap shrinks rapidly as you move along the value chain: from hydrogen to ammonia, to fertiliser, to food. By the time green fertiliser reaches a European consumer, the price premium is less than 1%. For downstream buyers, absorbing the green premium is more manageable than it first appears.

Agora's modelling also showed that Indonesia is not the cheapest place to produce green ammonia in the region today; Australia, Saudi Arabia, India, and Morocco all have lower costs under standard assumptions. But with cheaper financing, Indonesia can reach cost parity with grey ammonia by 2040. The most realistic near-term approach: produce locally for food security, and import from lower-cost neighbours where it makes sense.

India took three years to go from policy to signed contracts. Here is how
 

Santosh Gurunath of Umagine India gave us the clearest picture yet of what success looks like. India launched its National Green Hydrogen Mission in January 2023 with USD 2.5 billion in public funding. Three years later, its SECI green ammonia tender had covered 0.724 MTPA across 13 fertiliser buyers, with prices discovered as low as EUR 483/t, among the cheapest green ammonia prices seen anywhere in the world. Eleven of the thirteen contracts are now signed. State-owned refineries have separately awarded green hydrogen supply deals at EUR 3.16-3.24/kg on 25-year contracts.

As Santosh put it: "India chose pragmatic rules early on, with the plan to tighten them as the market grew. Real projects with slightly softer standards are worth more than perfect pipelines that never get built."

MENA lessons and Egypt's Damietta project as a blueprint for Indonesia
 

Simran Sinha from GH2 and Daniel Schoenert from thyssenkrupp Uhde Indonesia both pointed to Egypt's Damietta project as the clearest model for Indonesia. Built by a consortium, the project will produce 150,000 tpa of green ammonia, powered by up to 480 MW of renewables and 240 MW of electrolysers. Yara has signed the offtake agreement. The European Investment Bank is in financing discussions. Pre-FEED is done, FEED is underway, and first operations are targeted for Q3 2028.

What is making it work is a combination of factors that Indonesia would do well to replicate. Each partner in the consortium has a clear role: Scatec on renewables, ECHEM on government alignment, MOPCO on ammonia operations. The development plan treats renewables, electrolysers, port, and export infrastructure as one package rather than separate workstreams. The Egyptian government has backed it with a 33–55% cash incentive against tax paid.

The broader lesson from MENA: good resources alone are not enough. You need bankable offtake, affordable finance, and a government that actively removes barriers.

Why Indonesia is moving slowly, and what needs to change
 

Daniel Schoenert from thyssenkrupp Uhde Indonesia was candid about the structural barriers. The grid is closed to power wheeling. Renewables sit in remote areas with no ports or transmission lines. The fertiliser market is entirely grey and subsidised. Most projects are stuck at feasibility stage, with the largest reaching only 300 to 400 tons per day against an industry standard of 2,000 to 3,500 tons per day. Without grid and infrastructure reforms, projects will keep taking 8 to 10 years to develop.

Tim Anderson from ACWA Power was more optimistic. ACWA has committed USD 10 billion to Indonesia and is developing two green hydrogen projects at 35 ktpa and 10 to 15 ktpa. The modelling works at below 4 cents per kWh. The offtake is confirmed. The only missing piece is a workable regulatory framework for power wheeling and back-to-back PPAs, something the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is currently reviewing.