Feeding the World with Fewer Emissions

 

This is not just a technological pivot. It is a system shift—connecting green hydrogen, renewable energy, sustainable finance, and food security. What follows is the current map of this unfolding revolution—where the world stands, who’s building what, and how fast we’re moving. 

From desert hydrogen villages in Namibia to nitrate factories in Brazil, a new generation of green fertiliser projects is quietly taking root. It’s early days, but momentum is building. This week, we chart the progress, pressure points and possibilities for green fertiliser’s global scale-up. 

From Dominance to Disruption: A Slow but Steady Build 

Synthetic nitrogen fertiliser accounts for around 1–2% of global CO₂ emissions, largely driven by fossil-fuel-based ammonia production. Over 70% of ammonia made today goes into fertilisers. Yet, as of 2024, just 0.3% of global ammonia production is renewable (Global Green Fertiliser Tracker). 

According to Agora Industry’s new Global Green Fertiliser Tracker, only four renewable fertiliser production sites are currently operational, with another four expected to launch soon. Combined, they offer just 61,000 tonnes/year of green ammonia—a drop in the ocean compared to the 180 million tonnes of total ammonia production globally (Global Green Fertiliser Tracker). 

Technology Choices: What’s Actually Green? 

Not all “low carbon” fertilisers are created equal. The lowest-emission pathways are those using renewable hydrogen via electrolysis, powered by solar or wind. In contrast, “low carbon” ammonia made with fossil fuels and carbon capture still risks significant emissions from methane leakage and incomplete CO₂ capture. Biomass-based fertilisers are also constrained by feedstock availability​. (agora-industry.org) 

What is working? Early-mover projects are mostly co-located with existing ammonia plants or built as small greenfield sites. Many rely on solar PV, with installed capacity ranging from 0.25 MW to 24 MW. Two-thirds of projects use grid electricity, tying their emissions to grid intensity. (agora-industry.org) 

The Cost Question: Who Pays the Premium? 

The elephant in the room: cost. Green fertilisers are still significantly more expensive than grey. While BNEF and World Bank modelling show the gap narrowing by the 2030s, today’s producers face steep barriers. 

The Agora Tracker highlights a crucial insight: it’s not farmers bearing the premium—it’s food processors and consumer goods firms. Companies like Nestlé, PepsiCo, and Unilever are locking in offtakes for fertilisers with lower emissions. When used in crops like wheat or tomatoes, the final impact is only a few cents per packet of crisps or loaf of bread—but with a dramatic cut in embedded carbon​. (agora-industry.org) 

Green fertiliser still comes at a premium—averaging $1,300/ton for its key constituent green ammonia, compared to $600–700/ton for conventional ammonia in markets like Europe (BNEF). But that price gap is narrowing. In China, green ammonia production costs are already down to $670/ton, and the EU’s upcoming CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism) is expected to further level the playing field by the early 2030s. 

The key to bridging the gap? Not asking farmers to pay.  

According to Agora, the green premium is most viable when absorbed by downstream actors—food brands, retailers, and Agri processors—especially for high-value food products. 

The RMI Green Fertiliser Market report (2024) outlines three major pathways to scale: 

1. Distributed production: bringing fertiliser production closer to farms and using local renewable energy sources. This reduces transport emissions, improves resilience, and stabilises supply. 

2. Industrial decarbonisation: retrofitting large-scale ammonia plants with electrolysers or CCUS. 

3. Policy and market creation: carbon pricing, subsidies, buyer alliances, and national missions—such as India’s SIGHT scheme. 

The RMI team estimates green fertiliser demand could grow tenfold over the next decade with the right policy and procurement structures.​ (agora-industry.org) 

India: From Importer to Innovator 

India is writing a new chapter in green fertilisers—from the world’s second-largest consumer of ammonia to an emerging hub for domestic, decarbonised production. 

In 2023, India consumed 65 million tonnes (MTPA) of fertilisers, importing 19 MTPA, including 2.3 MTPA of ammonia, at a cost of over $10 billion. Fertiliser subsidies alone totalled a staggering $23 billion, underscoring the economic burden of external supply shocks​. 

Now, that model is being reimagined. Under the National Green Hydrogen Mission, India has committed to producing 5 MTPA of green hydrogen by 2030, backed by 125 GW of renewables, 60–100 electrolyser units, and more than $100 billion in green hydrogen-linked investment pipelines​. 

The SIGHT programme is the cornerstone of this strategy—and it is already delivering. In March 2025, Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) announced the results of its second major green hydrogen tender: 

• A total of 450,000 tonnes/year of green hydrogen capacity was awarded. 

• AM Green Ammonia (India) Pvt Ltd—a GH2 corporate member—was among the biggest winners. 

• AM Green secured a 90,000-tonne/year allocation, alongside an incentive of ₹513 crore. 

• Other winners include Reliance Green Hydrogen, L&T Energy Green Tech, and Waaree Clean Energy.

For fertiliser specifically, this is a breakthrough. Green hydrogen from these projects is expected to feed into domestic ammonia production, directly reducing reliance on imports and decarbonising urea, DAP, and nitrate fertiliser supply chains. 

Already, several green fertiliser pilots are underway. The policy framework is strong. Offtake interest is growing. And with players like AM Green moving fast, India’s green fertiliser moment is arriving earlier than expected. 

Morocco: Building a Fertiliser Export Empire 

Morocco’s state-owned OCP Group, the world’s largest phosphate producer, has committed to $13 billion in investments to decarbonise its fertiliser value chain. Its strategy includes large-scale renewable-powered desalination and green hydrogen production for ammonia in Laayoune and Guelmim. 

Another major green ammonia project by OCP near Tarfaya, powered by 3.8 GW of wind and solar and a large desalination plant. Production starts in 2026 at 200,000 tonnes/year, scaling up to 1 million tonnes annually by 2027, and reaching 3 million tonnes by 2032—all part of OCP’s push to localise supply and reach net zero by 2040. 

Beyond Emissions: Planetary Boundaries and Food Security 

Green fertilisers cut emissions from production-phases (which are currently 450–500 Mt CO₂e/year and make up ~1.3% of global emissions), however the use-phase emissions—nitrous oxide from fertiliser application—are independent of whether the ammonia is grey or green. The field-level emissions like nitrogen runoff and nitrous oxide depend on how fertilisers are applied. To fix these, we need smarter ways to use fertiliser—like fertilisers that release slowly over time, natural alternatives like microbes, and tools that help apply just the right amount in the right place. When combined, these approaches can help double nitrogen use efficiency by 2050, as highlighted in a 2024 Nature Food study. 

In Southern Africa, fertiliser prices are 2–3x above global norms. Many smallholder farmers apply just 30–40 kg/ha, well below global standards. Here, decentralised green fertiliser production could stabilise prices and improve yields while reducing reliance on imports, and we are seeing projects like this come to fruition in other countries like Kenya. 

What we’re witnessing isn’t just the greening of fertilisers. It is a reimagining of agriculture itself. The link between energy, food, climate, and finance has never been clearer. The tools are on the table. And the story is still being written. Project by project. Policy by policy. Bag by bag of fertiliser. 

This is what system change looks like—slow at first, then all at once. 

Simran Sinha,

Programme Officer, GH2