First Roundtable (20 March 2025)

List of speakers 

1. Green Ammonia Outlook, by Adithya Bhashyam, Senior Associate Hydrogen BloombergNEF and an insight on the demand from agri-food businesses by Helen Ramsbottom, Food, Agriculture & Nature Team, BloombergNEF. 
2. An update on the Global Green Fertiliser Tracker, by Fabian Barrera, Project Lead Power-to-X (PtX), Agora Industry. 
3. How close are we to large scale green nitrogen fertiliser production in Brazil? by Gabriela Oliveira, Director of Renewable Power and Government Relations in Brazil, Atlas Agro. 
4. Green Fertilisers Buyer’s Alliance, by Claudia Herbert, Head of Carbon, and Nature Programs, Atlas Agro. 
5. A Brazilian Price Guarantee? by Marc Moutinho, Brazil Country Lead, Industrial Transition Accelerator. 
6. The Fertiliser market in Southern Africa, by Simon Roberts, Research Professor, Centre for Sustainable Structural Transformation, SOAS London and University of Johannesburg. 
7. Modelling green ammonia, fertiliser, and food security, by Raj Sawhney, CEO, Clearview Strategic Partners. 
8. Latest developments in the Indian green fertiliser market, by Parth Sharma, Research Associate, GH2 India. 

Key insights 
 

1. A couple of headline numbers from our meeting 20 March 

Adithya Bhashyam from BNEF shared that global supply of clean ammonia could reach 24 – 32 by 2030, though delays mean we’re likely heading for the lower end of that range. Only four green fertiliser projects are currently operational – accounting for just 0.3% of global ammonia production – and blue projects are reaching final investment decisions (FIDs) faster (Fabian Barrera, Agora Industry). 

Still, the long-term economics are shifting. With falling electrolyser costs and CBAM coming into play, modelled green ammonia production costs could drop to $600–$800 per tonne in the early 2030s, potentially undercutting blue in key markets. Today, costs remain high – around $1,300/tonne on average for projects reaching FID in 2025 – but are significantly lower in China and Saudi Arabia. BNEF's figures show green ammonia already comes in at ~$670/tonne in China, though transport adds ~$160/tonne. 

Blue ammonia remains concentrated in North America (13Mt expected by 2030), while green projects are more widely distributed across China, the Middle East, Europe, India, and Latin America. But project maturity is uneven – only 2.5Mt of green ammonia is in FID today, compared to 7.6Mt of blue. 
 

2. Green fertiliser demand: still early days 

Helen Ramsbottom (BNEF) noted that 70–75% of emissions in the agri-food supply chain come from activities on the farm. Yet most regenerative agriculture projects by major food and Agri companies still focus on land management – not green fertilisers. Of 41 projects tracked aiming to optimise chemical inputs, only two involved applying low-carbon fertilisers. 

That gap presents an opportunity- tools to bridge the demand gap include: 

• Buyer alliances to provide demand pull and signal market interest (Claudia Herbert, Atlas Agro) 

• Price guarantee funds to derisk scale-up (Marc Moutinho, ITA)   

In markets like Brazil, India, and Southern Africa – where import costs and price volatility are high – localised green fertiliser production could be a win-win for food security and decarbonisation. 
 

3. Regional Perspectives 

• Brazil, despite being a top agricultural producer, imports 95% of its nitrate-based fertilisers (Gabriela Oliveira, Atlas Agro), and local production faces major challenges engaging civil society and aligning policy frameworks. 

• In Brazil, green ammonia projects are ~40% more expensive due to financing costs alone, highlighting the role of capital cost and localised production in closing the cost gap (Raj Sawhney, Clearview Strategic Partners). 

• In Southern Africa, urea prices spiked post-Russia–Ukraine war and remain 2–3 times higher than global prices. Coordinated planning is key to unlock potential and improve investor confidence (Professor Simon Roberts). 

• India is the world’s second-largest ammonia consumer, with fertiliser demand at 65 MTPA (2023). The National Green Hydrogen Mission is helping catalyse early green fertiliser development (Parth Sharma, GH2 India).