Decarbonising the shipping industry: Exploring green fuel bunkering in North Africa and the role of the IMO Net-Zero Framework
Summary
Shipping decarbonisation is accelerating globally, driven by emerging regulation and a growing push for a clean fuel transition, yet progress remains constrained by high costs, limited infrastructure and regulatory uncertainty. Green hydrogen-based fuels, particularly green ammonia, offer the most scalable pathway to decarbonise the maritime sector, but are not yet commercially competitive at scale.
North Africa is uniquely positioned to become a first mover in green shipping fuels, combining exceptional renewable energy resources, strategic location along key global trade routes, and proximity to European demand centres. Countries such as Egypt and Morocco could emerge as major green fuel bunkering hubs, leveraging their port infrastructure and centrality in international shipping.
Without decisive action, North Africa risks missing its window of opportunity in the global redesign of shipping routes and fuel supply chains. This brief sets out how the region can position itself at the centre of this transition.
Key Takeaways:
- Shipping decarbonisation is already underway. Despite the postponement of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) adoption, policies and initiatives around the world are pushing for a clean fuel switch in the maritime sector, which will cause a global redesign of shipping routes. Green ammonia is emerging as the most scalable and sustainable green shipping fuel.
- North Africa is uniquely placed to benefit from green fuel production and value chains, capture value from the IMO net-zero fund and enable green industrialisation. The centrality of North African ports in international shipping, the region’s abundant renewable energy potential, domestic policy targets and EU regulations are all building the case for North African countries, especially Egypt and Morocco, to become green fuel bunkering hubs and suppliers.
- Many green hydrogen and derivatives projects have been announced in North Africa, although most of them are still at very early-stage and seem to be converging pre-FID. Most projects in Egypt, Algeria and Morocco are planning to be located at ports, which would facilitate green fuel bunkering and exports to Europe. Most of the additional storage capacity for low-carbon ammonia at ports is to come online in 2029 and 2030 in Mauritania and Egypt.
- A viability and financing gap persists as green fuels are not yet commercially competitive, and this situation is exacerbated by North African countries’ high cost of capital. The postponement of the IMO NZF has also created greater uncertainty for the industry, and the availability of infrastructure remains a significant challenge for the development and deployment of green hydrogen-based fuels.
- To address these challenges, shipping decarbonisation should become a strategic priority for North African countries. This would both support green industrialisation and energy security by reducing the region’s reliance on fossil fuel imports. If anything, the crisis in the Middle East has indeed highlighted the importance of moving to a more diverse set of fuel sources.
- The adoption of the IMO NZF “as is” would allow them to reap the benefits of the green fuel transition. North African countries should also leverage their relationship to the EU and could create green corridors to catalyse domestic green fuel production and deployment.
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