Third Roundtable (15 May 2025)
Dear all,
Thank you for joining the third meeting of the Green Fertiliser Development Network (GFDN) on 15 May.
Cost Matters — But Context Is Everything
The cost gap with grey fertiliser continues to dominate the conversation, yet the picture is far from uniform.
R. Balaji of the IFC reminded us that for countries with abundant renewables and high grey fertiliser costs, the economics are already shifting. In regions like South Asia and South America, where additionality can be respected and natural gas is expensive: green fertiliser may become competitive sooner than expected. But competitiveness is fragile. Once capital-intensive green hydrogen inputs are factored in, project costs can quickly spiral. In India, as Karan Bhatia of CEEW outlined, urea accounts for 84% of total ammonia demand, yet non-urea fertilisers, with more volatile grey ammonia prices (1.2–2.2x higher than urea), offer a more attractive entry point for green ammonia use. India currently imports ~86% of its ammonia, and sees domestic green fertiliser production as both a food and energy security imperative.
Government Incentives: In Place or In Progress
Gina Zuluaga of H2-Diplo shared that while Colombia has strong tax incentives for hydrogen production, including VAT waivers and accelerated depreciation, these do not yet apply to fertiliser derivatives. Her team is working to quantify the gap and make the case for targeted green fertiliser support, especially in hard-to-reach agricultural zones where decentralised production would reduce costs. In Brazil, Walacy Santos of Solatio highlighted how free trade zones offer 0% tax on CAPEX and OPEX, helping close the gap with grey ammonia. Solatio is developing a 3 GW renewable project, with $590/ton green ammonia now in reach, a striking figure in a subsidy-light market.
Technology Innovation: From Pilots to Scale
Joe Were of Nium introduced a novel catalyst for green ammonia synthesis operating at significantly lower temperatures and pressures than Haber-Bosch. The early findings suggests that up to 50% CAPEX savings, lower energy use, and a projected 20–40% reduction in levelised cost of ammonia. Their systems target the 10–100 t/day range, with current pilots in Oxford, a 100 kg/day demo in Australia launching this autumn, and a 1 t/day project in Spain slated for 2026. And even where prices remain high, productivity gains can deliver real value: Colombia’s Yara green fertiliser pilot, despite being priced at double the grey alternative, delivered significantly higher yields in the coffee region — proving that agronomic performance still matters.
Offtake and Finance: Still Central
Whether it’s bankable offtake contracts, verified green premiums, or the smart use of blended finance, all speakers agreed on the critical importance of aligning project structures with the emerging regulatory and market frameworks, especially in jurisdictions impacted by EU CBAM. We also fielded an important question from Craig Boodoo around retrofitting grey ammonia plants with green hydrogen, including the feasibility of 20% substitution levels to lower upfront investment and improve emissions profiles. A crucial area for follow-up.
Looking Ahead: Deeper, More Tailored Sessions
Our next GFDN meetings will move beyond broad overviews to sharper, topic-specific deep dives, from subsidy reform to offtake structuring, from risk mitigation to regional project pipelines.
👉 What would you like to explore next?
Send us your suggestions, this network is built to serve your work, and we want every session to be directly relevant, actionable, and grounded in real project needs.
Thank you once again for being part of this growing and determined community.
Best wishes,
Simran and the GH2 team